THE IMPACT OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY ON LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY IN SERBIA: APPLICATION OF THE ARDL AND ECM APPROACHES
Keywords:
information and communication technologies (ICTs), digital economy, ARDL and ECM models, labour productivity, digital transformation.Abstract
Digital technologies have changed the way of people life, their business and behaviour by penetrating all aspects of their everyday life. They influence the development of the economy and society by enabling access to information and resources, connectivity, a more efficient decision-making process, financial inclusion, more advanced business strategies, as well as better access to trade and public services. Digital transformation encourages cooperation, flexibility, communication, efficiency and agility, but also innovation, conflict management, business sustainability, productivity growth, knowledge and general competencies of employees. On the other hand, labour productivity determines competitiveness, the pace of progress and the quality of the economy itself. The purpose of this article is to investigate the long-term and short-term relationship among some indicators of the digital sector and labour productivity in Serbia in the period from 2007 to 2021. While the applied Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) Model indicated that there is no long-term relationship between these phenomena, the applied Error Correction Model (ECM) indicated their short-term relationship. It was also observed that last year's productivity of employees statistically significantly and positively determines their current productivity. The article concludes that the government should continue to encourage the development of the digital economy in Serbia...
References
Bahmani-Oskooee, H., Ferda, H., Scott W. 2016. Mexican bilateral trade and the J-curve: An application of the nonlinear ARDL model. Economic Analysis and Policy, 50(2016), pp. 23-40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2016.02.003
Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A. 1979. Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 47, pp. 427-431.
Giles, D. 2013. Dave Giles’ Blog, ARDL models – PART II – Bounds Tests, June 19, 2013. Retrieved from: https://davegiles.blogspot.com/2013/06/ardl-models-part-ii-bounds-tests.html [access: June 5, 2023]
Johansen, S. 1991. Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica, 59(6), pp. 1551-1580.
Jurayevich, M. B., Bulturbayevich, M. B. 2020. The Impact of Digital Economy on Economic Growth. International Journal of Business, Law, and Education, Vol. 1, No. 1, August 2020, pp. 4-7.
Khuong, V. M. 2011. ICT as a source of economic growth in the information age: Empirical evidence from the 1996–2005 period. Telecommunications Policy, Vol. 35, Issue 4, May 2011, pp. 357-372. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2011.02.008
Madžar, L. 2022. Stanje digitalne privrede u Srbiji. Naučno-stručna konferencija Trendovi u poslovanju 2022. Kruševac: Visoka poslovna škola strukovnih studija „Prof. dr Radomir Bojković“ Kruševac i Biznis inkubator Kruševac, str. 181-190.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. 1999. An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Chapter 11 in S. Strom (ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., Smith, R. J. 2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, pp. 289–326.
Seo, H. J., Lee, Y. S., Oh, J. H. 2009. Does ICT investment widen the growth gap?. Telecommunications Policy, Vol. 33, Issue 8, September 2009, pp. 422-431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2009.04.001
Stefanović, M., Đorđević, I., Milosavljević, N., Đonović, A. 2022. Analiza stanja inovacija i procesa digitalne tranformacije u Republici Srbiji, Mart 2022. godine. Beograd: NALED.
Tabachnick, B. G., Fidell, L. S. 2013. Using Multivariate Statistics, Sixth Edition. Boston: Pearson.
Vidas Bubanja, M., Madžar, L. 2019. The Importance of Innovation and Knowledge for Economic Development of the Country and the Competitive Business of Companies. Glasnik za društvene nauke, God. 11, Br. XI(2019), str. 157-173.
Zhang, J., Zhao, W., Cheng, B., Li, A., Wang, Y., Yang, N., Tian, Y. 2022. The Impact of Digital Economy on the Economic Growth and the Development Strategies in the post-COVID-19 Era: Evidence From Countries Along the “Belt and Road”. Frontiers in Public Health, Vol. 10, 2022.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.856142
Madžar, L. 2021. The Concept, Principles and Innovations in Circular Economy. Glasnik za društvene nauke, Vol. XIII, No. 13, pp. 120-133.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.