The cost of disinflation in the Serbian economy

Authors

  • Mehmed L. Murić
  • Amel Izberović

Keywords:

disinflation, disinflation episodes, ratio of loss.

Abstract

This paper addresses the problem of gross domestic product loss which occurs in the process of disinflation. This paper uses the term "loss ratio", which refers to the English designation of "Sacrifice Ratio". The paper draws on the methodology developed by Ball in 1994. We consider the period from 2001 to 2011, when the Serbian economy  underwent a  significant disinflation process. The results show that the gross domestic product loss occurring during the first four episodes of the disinflation  corresponded to the overall economic reforms. The data also indicate that the strategy of targeting inflation had a positive impact on the elimination of losses in gross domestic product during this period of disinflation.

References

Ball, L. (1994) “What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?” in N. G. Mankiw (eds.), Monetary Policy, University of Chicago, 155-193.

Cetinkaya, A., A., Yavuz, D. (2002) “Calculation of output – inflation sacrifice ratio: The Case of Turkey, Research Department Working Paper No: 11, The Central bank of the Republic of Turkey

Gordon, R., J., King, S. (1982) “The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, 205-242.

Murić, L. M. (2013) Ciljanje inflacije – teorijski koncept i mogućnost opstanka u ekonomskim uslovima Srbije. Novi Pazar: Naučno društvo Akroasis. 175-178

Okun, A., M. (1978) “Efficient Disinflationary Policies”. American Economic Review 68 (May): 348-52.

Romer, C., D., Romer, D. (1989) Does monetary policy matter? A new test in the spirit of Friedman and Schwartz. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 121-70.

Sargent, T. (1983) “Stopping moderate inflations: The methods of Poincare and Thatcher. In Inflation, debt, and indexation”, eds. Dombusch and Simonsen. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. Sargent, Thomas. 1983. Stopping moderate inflations: The methods of Poincare and Thatcher. In Inflation, debt, and indexation, eds. Dombusch and Simonsen. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.

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Published

19-12-2014